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Perspective
By Michael Alan Hamlin
March 11, 2002
A friend from America says the US
decision last week to protect its antiquated steel industry should
serve as a reality check for the Philippines. Certainly not because
of the Philippines' own bankrupt steel industry and its potential
for exports, which are nonexistent. And not just because the US
does give the Philippines grief about its mangos. But because the
decision demonstrates the US priority: its own self-interest. There's
nothing wrong of course with the US acting in its own self-interest.
Rather, the lesson here is not to make the mistake of assuming that
the US will always act in the interests of its best friends, like
the Philippines.
Last week's decision is particularly notable. First
of all is the irony of the world's chief free trade advocate protecting
an industry for purely political reasons, and an industry that is
wholly undeserving of protection. On the other hand, American trade
negotiators have long talked out of both sides of their mouths,
particularly when it comes to politically touchy sectors like agriculture,
which is both protected and subsidized by the US. That America often
doesn't practice what it preaches isn't really news.
More startling in this case is the US willingness to
play the role of trade hypocrite despite the impact its unilateral
actions have on its closest allies and their obvious ire as a result.
Many in the US conservative right have argued in past months that
the US is so generous to its friends in so many other ways - from
the provision of a defacto military umbrella to the import of their
products - that the US is in effect entitled to bend the rules in
its favor when it pleases. It's interesting that that right is now
invoked to protect traditionally democratic voters.
Whether it's entitled or not, the US will do what it
thinks it can get away with. Whether it will get away with protecting
its steel industry remains to be seen. The case will come before
the World Trade Organization (WTO), and it is unlikely that the
American steel industry's refusal to restructure itself over the
past 50 years will evoke much sympathy. Neither will the Bush administration's
stated motive of protecting highly paid, woefully unproductive workers'
jobs. Still the outcome isn't clear, and a decision against the
US could set precedents that other countries might find potentially
troubling as well. America isn't the only closet protectionist in
the WTO.
What all this means for the Philippines isn't the obvious
conclusion that friendship doesn't mean much. Instead it means that
the Philippines must act in a way that will put US friendship in
a more appropriate perspective. While it will always be important,
it shouldn't be quite as important, perhaps, as it is today.
Just how important is that friendship? And I don't
mean to the government, but rather the average Filipino. For the
answer, a glance at the front pages of many national dailies and
a few moments listening to news broadcasts suggests pretty clearly
that the average Filipino is having a love affair. And that's not
just the children trailing real-life GI Joes as they do everything
from taking a bath to calling home. Since the Americans arrived,
business confidence has increased, the stock market has been revived,
and businesspeople in their conversations admit that the economy
may actually be growing.
What would it take for the Philippines' own government
to get that kind of adulation?
For starters, government should be satisfied that it
made what is obviously a good call in inviting the Americans to
open a Philippine front in the war on terrorism. Trying to leverage
the relationship for additional gain is going to backfire. Those
of you who have seen that recent spot where the president speaks
with the benefit of a framed photo of her and US president George
Bush as a prop probably understand just how appropriate "prop"
is as a descriptor of the government's relationship with the US.
That contrived setting powerfully inspires that not-so-comforting
conclusion.
That's dangerous because while closer ties short term
have strengthened the administration, reliance on the US for credibility
will cause its credibility, and eventually its popularity, to wan.
The government, while enjoying the benefits of the new, touchy close
relationship with the US, must demonstrate that it can stand on
its on merits. On its own record. And there is a degree of urgency
to this need.
How will it do these things? I think we all know the
answers to that question. Perhaps the most important answer though
is not just competent government, but good government. In fact,
competent government, no matter how many Wharton graduates are in
the cabinet, is primarily a product of good government. I don't
think I've ever seen an instance where competence contributed to
a government's longevity, or accomplishments without good government.
It's still to be seen whether the administration will
meaningfully address the tough issues necessary to bring about good
government in the same way it embraced the US. Hope may sprint (not
a typo) eternal, but political realities are notoriously in-your-face
in character. If the Philippines' shaky recovery is to strengthen,
the administration needs to remain gutsy.
(Michael Alan Hamlin is the managing director of consultancy
TeamAsia and the author of three books on Asian economies and companies.
His latest book is Marketing Asian Places, of which he is co-author.
His e-mail address is mahamlin@teamasia.com.ph.)
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