|
Christmas
Wish
By Michael Alan Hamlin
December 23, 2002
This time of year in Japan I used
to find myself at "bonenkai" almost every evening. "Bonenkai,"
translated literally, means "Forget the Year Meeting."
It's a party, where everyone drinks himself silly and forgets the
year that's rapidly coming to a close. Everyone has these things.
Companies, associations, friends. In my view, they are a healthy
practice because they encourage party goers to put the past where
it belongs - behind us.
We need a giant, national "bonenkai"
this year to make 2002 a distant memory. It is by far the worst
I've experienced in 30 years in Asia. Here're some of the things
I'd like to forget.
First, I'd like to forget that business
confidence fell through the cellar. One business survey I saw last
week showed that as late as June, 80 percent of respondents felt
good or optimistic about the economy. I remember offering a few
rosy predictions myself about that time. But what a difference six
months makes. Now that figure has reversed itself, and 80 percent
of respondents to the most recent survey are pessimistic about the
economy - and its prospects.
What makes these results particularly
dismaying is that the economy, by the time the year finally ends,
is supposed to have expanded about 4.2 percent. If we're doing so
well, why do we feel so bad? One reason is that 4.2 percent growth
isn't quite enough to absorb all the new workers coming on the new
market because population growth is so high. And because of deteriorating
standards of education, most of those working age people aren't
qualified to do high value-creating work. Improving education standards
is a strategic task, so this isn't going to change for a while,
either.
Another reason we feel bad is that
the jobs that are being created are principally in new, non-traditional
sectors, stuff like software development, contact center services,
and medical transcription. There's nothing wrong with that (As long
as you're not one of those Americans whose job has been exported!).
But solid growth in these sectors makes everyone in traditional
sectors feel that much worse at how miserably they are doing.
A third reason we feel depressed
this year is that consumers with jobs aren't spending as much as
they'd like to. They are worried that they might not have their
jobs long. So they are holding onto their cash hoping to cushion
even harder times that have a good chance of coming. As a result,
there are fewer presents under the tree, not as many lights adorning
our homes (and those we have are on a maximum of just two hours
an evening to save on energy costs), and fewer trips are planned
for the holiday.
Next, I'd like to forget how rocky
things became politically this year, even though I predicted this
two years ago. Yup, sometimes you really do get what you wish for,
friends. Of course, politics has a lot to do with the first thing
I want to forget about this year, too. Like the lousy business conditions,
there are a number of reasons why we're dismayed politically this
year, most of which I've obsessed over in other columns. So in the
spirit of Christmas, suffice it to say that a steady stream of pictorials,
corruption scandals, and public policy waffling have taken their
toll. And things were supposed to be different with this administration!
The third thing I'd like to forget
is how many of my friends called it quits this year and moved on.
Some of the brightest, hardest-working people I know gave up on
government, and went back to the academe or the private sector.
Some of them didn't have a choice. Others just gave up on the country,
after years of commitment and hard work, and moved away to pursue
other opportunities. They were journalists, government officials,
business executives, students, and consultants.
I made a presentation at a conference
recently. It was organized by the business majors at one of our
large, local universities. One of the student organizers was amazed
that I've lived in the Philippines 20 years. "My whole family
emigrated to the U.S. last year," he told me. "I went
too, but came back to finish school. But as soon as I finish up,
I'm out of here." So I'd like to forget that the Philippines
still subsidizes developed economies by educating many of their
best workers because it can't get its own act together.
It's not surprising that I don't
feel much of a Christmas cheer this year. But after all, who does?
To be fair, and we always want to be fair, the mood in most other
Asian countries isn't too great either. Hong Kong, Malaysia, and
Singapore have had a wretched year, for example. Hong Kong's got
a lousy chief executive that no one likes, is bracing for the impact
of a new Beijing-dictated, draconian subversion law, and real estate
values - where most of the former colony's wealth resides - are
far below peaks and will eventually fall further.
In Malaysia, aging prime minister
Mahathir Mohamad finally got rid of one set of dismally performing
cronies only to replace them with another. Foreign investment is
way off, and now, ironically, the currency peg is making the country
uncompetitive for exporters. Singapore is still figuring out how
to de-corporatize itself, and become more of an entrepreneurial
economy. Meanwhile, it is struggling to create the educational infrastructure
it needs to be a true creative thought center which is tough to
do in a place where you can get in a lot of trouble for thinking
too creatively.
But others' miseries are a poor palliative
for what we're feeling. And they certainly won't make our problems
go away. Only dealing with them will do that.
So let's party!
(Michael Alan Hamlin is the managing
director of consultancy TeamAsia and the author of three books on
Asian economies and companies. His latest book is Marketing Asian
Places, of which he is a co-author (Wiley, 2001). Write him at mahamlin@teamasia.com.).
Copyright © 2002 Michael Alan
Hamlin. All Rights Reserved.
|
