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Out with
the Old, In with the New
By Michael Alan Hamlin
Janurary 7, 2003
This is a column I didn't expect
to be starting the year with, but President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's
dramatic announcement last week that she will not seek re-election
in 2004 provides some intriguing prospects for the Philippines.
Foremost among those possibilities is the opportunity to fundamentally
alter the political landscape by fostering a generational shift.
In other words, "Out with the Old Guys; In with the New!"
Seems an awfully appropriate slogan
in more ways than just timing. The fact is that the current generation
of leaders has failed the Philippines pretty horribly. The country
is on record as one of the most corrupt in Asia, it has an embarrassingly
low level of foreign investment compared to other regional developing
economies which are leaving it behind as a result, and the economy
grows barely fast enough to keep up with out-of-control population
growth. Yet, the current crop of discredited leaders has had 17
years since democracy was reborn here to turn the Philippines around.
Seems to me if they can't do it in
that space of time, they're never going to do it. But what guarantee
is there that a new generation of leaders will do things differently?
Well, there is no guarantee except one: more of the same leadership
will provide more of the same results. Management guru Peter Drucker
once said something to the effect that he is always surprised to
see people and organizations doing the same thing over and over
and somehow expecting different results. The lesson: if it's not
working, it's not going to. So do something differently.
As a result of her announcement,
Ms. Arroyo now enjoys the good will necessary to catalyze this shift
in leadership. That's because political sacrifice is not something
you see generously offered up in the Philippines very often. In
fact, just the opposite is the norm. Political appointees, bureaucrats
(lifers, rather than careerists, that is), and politicians alike
generally cling to their posts until driven unceremoniously from
them. That's how Ms. Arroyo, of course, became president two years
ago.
So rare is such a selfless act that
it has generally left voters and politicians alike in stunned silence.
Of course, there are the usual critics who argue that she's simply
trying to deflect another impending corruption scandal or making
an all-to-obvious political play. But sources who claim to be in
the know suggest that she's completely serious about the decision.
The anointment by a president who
has made such a historic sacrifice (Just wait until the next survey!)
will be a powerful advantage for any presidential candidate. Remember,
the last time a credible endorsement was made, it got former president
Fidel V. Ramos elected from among a field of much tougher competition
than a candidate backed by Ms. Arroyo is likely to face in 2004.
But will Ms. Arroyo leverage her
sudden ascendancy in a way that will work to the Philippines' advantage?
If it's to be sustained, she must. While Ms. Arroyo - so far, at
least - has reigned over a failed presidency, her decision not to
run has the potential to change how she will be remembered. However,
if she is to be remembered as a leader capable of real selflessness,
then she has little choice but to throw her support to a candidate
who represents a new way, and a fresh perspective. Indeed, her legacy
will suffer irreparably if she backs a winning candidate who leads
the country further into poverty and backwardness.
Before campaigning for Ms. Arroyo's
imprimatur begins in earnest, I hope the president will announce
that she's not going to dilute the impact of her announcement by
descending into a political two-step. It should be clear that she's
on the lookout for a candidate that while not fitting the usual
political mold - media star, traditional politician, and entrenched
elite - is actually elect-able. And that she will leverage the goodwill
associated with her decision to make sure that happens.
One way to get that message across
is to undertake the reforms she vowed to push last week. She no
longer has time to undertake wholesale bureaucratic reform, but
she can seal her message with a few carefully selected high-profile
cases. For example, she should bust local National Food Authority
officials who connive with big-scale middlemen to force poor farmers
to sell palay at below support price levels and pocket the difference.
Ms. Arroyo should consider undoing
the sugar cartel that keeps workers mired in poverty and consumers
buying the world's most expensive sugar. She can further lower the
cost of imports by truly liberalizing shipping and loosening the
monopoly hold on the Philippines' ports, which together make it
more expensive to ship from Davao to Manila than Manila to San Francisco.
But while those and countless other
reforms - if a lame duck president can pull them off - would be
of great service to the Philippines, the greatest service Ms. Arroyo
can make will be reforming Philippine politics. And there's just
one way to that.
Out with the Old; In with the New.
(Michael Alan Hamlin is the managing
director of consultancy TeamAsia and the author of three books on
Asian economies and companies. His latest book is Marketing Asian
Places, of which he is a co-author (Wiley, 2001). Write him at mahamlin@teamasia.com.).
Copyright © 2003 Michael Alan
Hamlin. All Rights Reserved.
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