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Senate
Vote by Erap Allies a Strategic Error
By Michael Alan Hamlin
January 17, 2001
The eleven senator-judges that voted
against opening a sealed envelope said to contain evidence of ill-gotten
wealth in the trial of impeached president Joseph E. Estrada committed
a serious error in judgment that will accelerate calls for his resignation
according to a Manila-based author and business consultant.
"The vote last night represents a serious lapse
in judgment," said Michael Alan Hamlin. "Until last night,
the administration had the advantage of a largely apathetic middle
class and a supportive mass base. While many among these constituencies
may have been disgusted with the revelations made in the trial,
there was little enthusiasm for conviction and removal from office
of the president.
"This was largely because the opposition coalition
has been unable to demonstrate credibility or broad appeal of its
own," Hamlin said.
"But by subverting the process the senator-judges
have catalyzed a transition from disgust to outrage that has nothing
to do with the opposition. And it is precisely a sense of outrage
that the administration should fear most," Hamlin explained.
"The issue now is no longer Erap or the constitutional successor,
but Erap’s worthiness to lead the nation."
Asked to explain why he believes the 11 senator-judges
voted to keep sealed bank records purported to reveal as much as
$65 million in undeclared assets of the president Hamlin said, "It
seems that the administration feels that repressing this evidence
is the lesser of two liabilities. The vote last night suggests that
the documents contained in the envelope have the potential to swing
public opinion against the president in a significant way.
"The problem with that thinking is that the administration
and its 11 supporters in the Senate believe that this evidence won’t
ultimately see the light of day anyway. In fact, that’s already
beginning to happen," Hamlin said, referring to information
reported to be contained in the envelope released by a local publisher.
"It would have been far more prudent for the senator-judges,
therefore, to allow the contents of the envelope to be marked and
then attack its credibility and relevance as they have done up to
now. By refusing to open the envelope, they have essentially acknowledged
the accuracy and truthfulness of its contents. That’s an overt
admission of the president’s guilt, confirmed by the overtly
partisan nature of the vote," he said.
"In a purely legal setting, that might be all
right or even to the advantage of the defendant. But this is not
a legal process. It is a political process with direct public exposure.
So what the prosecutors couldn’t do, the senator-judges have
done for them."
Hamlin is a long-time resident of the Philippines,
and is the author of two books on Asian economies and enterprise.
He also contributes regularly to international publications such
as The Asian Wall Street Journal and The Far Eastern Economic Review.
A column in The Asian Wall Street Journal in December last year
suggested that the opposition’s low perceived levels of credibility
and impact on public opinion were undermining efforts to unseat
the president.
Although the outcome of the vote by the impeachment
trial almost certainly set the stage for a period of political unrest,
Hamlin believes that there is a silver lining. "There are always
tradeoffs. The tradeoff here is an unexpectedly sudden period of
intense unrest in favor of an accelerated timetable. Instead of
having to wait for this period of rocky transition to begin in a
month, it has started now. Hopefully this means that the issue will
be resolved earlier than it otherwise would have."
Hamlin believes that there is little alternative for
the president other than resignation. "The longer he holds
on, the more his credibility and ratings will suffer under a continual
onslaught of new revelations. And, government is already in a state
of paralysis. Its capacity to fulfill its obligations is almost
completely compromised due to the insistence of a fatally wounded
president to stay in power.
"I believe that we’ll later agree that in
a very real sense, Estrada was effectively removed from office the
evening of January 16," Hamlin concluded.
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