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A Radical
Fix?
By Michael Alan Hamlin
March 28, 2001
Political reckoning is at hand in
Japan. Increasingly frustrated with Liberal Democrat inaction, voters
are becoming more open to change. Unfortunately this does not necessarily
mean that needed systemic reforms are on the way, but it does indicate
that Japanese are toying with the idea of a drastic leadership shift.
The catch is that while the LDP is clearly a spent force intellectually,
the alternatives are fraught with risk because, after five decades
of LDP preeminence, Japan is left with an anemic opposition poorly
prepared to govern the complex nation.
The high level of voter anxiety has clearly made a
strong impression on some LDP members, as infighting among various
party factions to pick the next prime minister seems ever more desperate.
Recent news reports have even speculated about the prospects for
a reform-minded member quickly rising within LDP ranks. And although
these reports note the increasing popularity of officials and candidates
unaffiliated with any political party, none suggests how the long-ruling
party might actually lose its grip for good, or at least for a long
while.
But with support for Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori's
government at just 6.9% according to a Sankei Shimbun poll and the
leader clearly on the way out, it's time to think about what's up
next. First, it's important to accept that Japanese voters are in
fact becoming increasingly restless not just with this government
and their hugely unpopular leader, but finally with the LDP itself.
In that same Sankei poll, 44% of respondents said they prefer to
see a new coalition without the long-reigning party at all.
Despite these latest poll results, the LDP appears
intent on choosing Mr. Mori's successor in the same back-room tradition
that has stymied reform in the past. Worse, it seems increasingly
likely that the new administration will be little more than another
face change. Junichiro Koizumi, although said to be reform-minded,
actually heads Mr. Mori's LDP faction. Former Prime Minister Ryutaro
Hashimoto — who currently serves in Mr. Mori's government —
is also a candidate. So is LDP senior Hiromu Nonaka, one of four
king-makers who selected Mr. Mori last year.
Voter reaction to this lineup isn't encouraging. When
respondents to the Sankei poll were asked which candidate they prefer
as their next leader, the outspoken Makiko Tanaka, daughter of disgraced
former prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, came out ahead of Mr. Koizumi
by a significant margin, 13.5% to 8.7%. These results are significant
for a couple of reasons.
First, Japan has never had a female prime minister
— though this might be less of a hurdle than it seems. Despite
the rough, macho male persona that is popular in the country, women
traditionally control the family budget, and nowadays are taking
more senior positions in Japan's corporate landscape, especially
in New Economy sectors.
Second, while preference for a political dynastic heir
might seem to betray Japanese voter preference for the status quo,
it's more accurate to suggest that voters are simply looking for
strong, bold leadership. Ms. Tanaka fits the bill on two counts:
She's outspoken in her opinions, which are respected, and, although
her late father was forced to resign as a result of a kickback scandal,
he was undoubtedly the strongest leader post-World War II Japan
has had.
It's also true that the preference for Ms. Tanaka is
in significant part a reflection of the dearth of attractive alternatives.
Although the LDP does have an emerging group of younger international-thinking
legislators such as Yasuhisa Shiozaki and Nobuteru Ishihara, they
are years away from achieving significant influence within the party.
All this is meaningful to observers for what the Sankei
poll didn't measure — the chances of a non-LDP political figure
becoming prime minister. Many believe that despite the LDP's fading
popularity, there is no one with the national stature and credibility
required to bring an alternative party to power. That's not exactly
true. There's another Ishihara with broad national awareness who
could very well become Japan's prime minister: former LDP member
and current Tokyo governor Shintaro Ishihara.
This Mr. Ishihara is the nationalist former transport
minister who with the late Sony founder Akio Morita co-authored
"The Japan that Can Say No!" The book argued that Japan
should assume a more forceful role in global affairs and scathingly
critiqued U.S. influence in Japan. Mr. Ishihara has consistently
argued that U.S. criticisms of Japan are racially motivated. More
recently, he made headlines after slapping a local 3% tax on banks
for five years in an effort to rehabilitate the Tokyo government's
own precarious finances independently of the central government.
He's also been a vocal critic of Mr. Mori, stating
publicly that "a leader should set an example" when the
prime minister finished a round of golf after learning of the accidental
sinking of a Japanese training ship full of high school students.
He ran for governor of Tokyo against an LDP-backed candidate, replacing
a former comedian elected by voters disgruntled with traditional
politics.
The specter of a strong and intensely nationalist Japanese
prime minister sends chills through much of the world, especially
Asia. A recent article in Singapore's The Straits Times criticized
what it called the "increasing nationalistic atmosphere"
in Japan rooted in "rising nationalistic sentiments spawned
by a depressed economy." The author, Hau Boon Lai, suggested
that the "hugely popular" Shintaro Ishihara was elected
because of his nationalist views during a time of severe financial
crisis. He noted that Japanese nationalists have also taken to defending
Japan's conduct in World War II on the basis of financial pressure
applied by former Western allies.
Although Mr. Ishihara has so far resisted calls to
run for national office while governor, he recently gave his blessings
to a group that intends to elect him prime minister after his term
ends in 2003. The group — whose English name is 18 words long
— intends to "transform itself into a legally certified
political group" and run at least 10 candidates in the July
upper house elections, according to a recent report in the Yomiuri
Shimbun. The LDP expects to lose those elections, and there is talk
of a partnership with the group.
Many, of course, believe that the ascendancy of Mr.
Ishihara to the nation's top post is fanciful and perhaps reckless
speculation. I think not. As the 20th century showed so tragically,
desperate economic times not infrequently create conditions in which
unthinkably dysfunctional administrations come to power with globally
depressing results.
If Mr. Ishihara should manage to make himself prime
minister, there's still a very good chance that nationalist rhetoric
will give way to pragmatic governance. But increasingly, that's
not what Japanese voters want. They want their country fixed, and
if Shintaro Ishihara is the only one who looks up to the job, then
he's going to get it.
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