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In Denial
By Michael Alan Hamlin
July 9, 2001
The administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo
thinks it's getting a bum rap. It's managed to seduce Congress into
passing the power reform bill. It's put smart people into key positions
at finance, trade and industry, and investment. And it says its
addressing revenue generation and cost reduction issues, although
it's not clear how. Oh, and it says it's got vision. As a result,
the president spends a lot of time in blue jeans holding the hands
of poor folk.
Hold that picture, for a minute, because it illustrates
the administration's principal problem: too much concern with style;
too little attention to substance. Dressing down and getting down
with the people is fine, but the president is spending way too much
time trying to look good for the cameras - a recent interview in
AsiaWeek took place after a session with photographers for two women's
magazines - and not enough actually doing things. That is, things
that matter in a fundamental way.
Ms. Arroyo of course will dispute that argument, as
she in fact does in the AsiaWeek interview. And to be fair, she
has made some progress in some important areas. But the real question
is, has her administration made progress in the most important areas?
No administration has the resources to address all the issues it
wants, and should. But successful administrations do, or eventually
learn to, address the most important.
What are the most important issues for this administration?
The answers seem pretty clear cut. First, is the Abu Sayyaf. By
allowing this crisis to be drawn out, the Philippines has managed
to stay in the international news in an incredibly negative way.
This means that in the view of foreign investors who create jobs,
the administration is not capable of effectively addressing its
most obvious problem: outlaws. And if it can't do that, why bother
with the country at all?
The second issue is crime in general and the increasing
number of kidnappings in Metro Manila. Effectively addressing these
two issues in a credible way would put the positive spin on the
Philippines that the administration needs to address other, longer-term
issues. Until the Abu Sayyaf and the kidnapping gangs are effectively
dealt with, issues such as the budget and revenue generation can
be addressed in incremental terms only. And incremental improvement
doesn't have much real or perceived impact now.
Recently the administration announced that it would
undertake a public relations initiative to align its public image
with what it perceives as the reality. But doing so would be a waste
of money for now. While the administration does have real problems
in projecting itself, and this is an issue that must be addressed
to distinguish the Philippines from its competitors, no message
can be made to eclipse the one that is currently being broadcast.
Worse, the administration is in denial, and pretends
that its inability to solve its most important problems doesn't
really matter that much. In reaction to plummeting business confidence,
the administration says the country is "slowly turning the
corner." That's not the impression most business people have.
To them, the country is sinking, and it's not doing it slowly, either.
Neither does the administration seem to understand
that one result of failing to address these issues is increased
political vulnerability. If it can't solve its most important problems,
what can it do? This reasoning emboldens its critics because they
don't believe they are going to have to pay a price, political or
otherwise, when they attack the administration. When the president
promises to crush its enemies and then doesn't, more enemies emerge
to take advantage of an administration with a big bark and loose
dentures.
How long can this go on? The answer to that question
is something few - other than diehard political opportunists - want
to contemplate. But it's a question the administration must. Clearly,
patience is wearing thin not just among managers in big business,
but among the young and mid-life professionals and managers most
responsible - outside the military - for bringing the administration
to power. For them it's not enough that Ms. Arroyo says she is a
good president. She must truly be one.
(Mr. Hamlin is managing director of the consultancy
TeamAsia and the author of two books on Asian economies and managing
in Asia. His latest book is The New Asian Corporation: Managing
for the Future in Post-Crisis Asia. His e-mail address is mahamlin@teamasia.com.ph.)
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