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Survey
Season Heats Up
By Michael Alan Hamlin
December 9, 2003
Spooked by the freefall of the peso following the
announcement by Fernando Poe Jr. that he will run for president,
the Philippine business community last week demanded that presidential
hopefuls make sure they translate promises into action if elected.
However, since Poe hasn't made any promises other than to run for
president, what pro-business action he is supposed to take remains
unclear.
Meanwhile, at least half of the opposition Laban ng Demokratikong
Pilipino (LDP) party that party president Edgarda Angara says will
eventually endorse Poe wound up instead endorsing senator Panfilo
Lacson last Thursday. Lacson promptly made some promises, announcing
an eight-point program to rebuild the Philipines. "I promise,
and with your help, I will deliver - a turning point in the first
360 days," Lacson said.
Lacson's program includes: 1) the restoration of justice, law, and
order; 2) generation of resources for the government and cuts in
government spending; 3) curbing corruption; 4) increasing productivity
and job generation; 5) upgrading education; 6) instituting investor-friendly
and predictable economic policies; 7) strengthening the judiciary;
and, 8) instituting a national health policy to make quality health
care affordable.
Former senator and education secretary Raul Roco announced a wispy
"Agenda of Hope" to an estimated 10,000 supporters a little
over a week ago when he formalized his bid for the presidency. Roco
promised that in 10 years Singaporeans and Malaysians will be wishing
they had a Raul Roco. Since the Philippine president serves one
six-year term and can't be re-elected, Roco's decade-anchored promise
is a bit puzzling. Roco also promised to effectively address corruption,
strengthen education, and protect the environment.
Poe was too busy making a cold according to his handlers to make
any platform promises.
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the embattled incumbent, promises
essentially more of the status quo. While the economy grew at an
impressive 4.7 percent in the third quarter, allegations of corruption
within her family, a penchant for political opportunism, and an
increasingly dire peace and order situation have badly dented her
popularity. So badly, in fact, that according to the latest PulseAsia
survey she will lose the chance to serve a full term regardless
of what crowd of candidates she faces.
In fact, two local surveys were announced this week that show Ms.
Arroyo far behind the most popular contenders for her job. The Social
Weather Station (SWS) showed Poe and senator and broadcaster Noli
de Castro locked in a two-way popularity contest for most-favored
candidate. Roco and Ms. Arroyo were tied for a far second place,
with Lacson bringing up the rear.
The PulseAsia survey showed Ms. Arroyo in second place in a three-way
contest with Roco and Lacson. In a three-way race with Poe in place
of Lacson, she dropped to third. And in a four-way race with Roco,
Lacson and Poe, she also came in third.
Both surveys took place pretty much over the same period, and so
the apparent, dramatically different results caused a degree of
controversy associated with SWS president Mahar Mangahas' relationship
with Poe. The two are first cousins. The fact that Poe was a distant
fourth in a September SWS poll, appeared to support claims that
the results were biased. Worse, Mangahas failed to disclose his
relationship to Poe in his statement announcing the results of the
latest poll, conducted in November.
Although Mangahas should have disclosed his close relationship with
Poe - "We're very close," he told reporters only after
it became an issue - the likely explanation for the apparent discrepancy
in the results has to do with the more realistic groupings provided
in the PulseAsia survey. The SWS survey simply asked who respondents
would vote for from among a group of candidates.
In fact, the presidential race is likely, at present, to be essentially
a four-person race, sans de Castro who apparently will run for vice
president, probably with Ms. Arroyo. He has no political machinery,
and no major party backing for a presidential run. This means a
couple of things. First, unless Lacson quickly develops some charisma,
he's not just going to lose, he's going to come in last almost certainly.
Second, unless a miracle happens, Ms. Arroyo is not going to win
a second term. Even if Lacson pulls out, which seems unlikely at
this point, she loses. She loses in every possible scenario. Does
this mean that Ms. Arroyo should bite the bullet and throw her support
to Roco? Ms. Arroyo's supporters say that won't happen, and the
SWS results suggest that if Lacson also drops out Roco is likely
to lose in a two-way contest.
So business has more to hope for than meaningful action by whoever
is elected. He has to hope for a three way contest so that a president
with at least some attractive promises gets elected.
(Michael Alan Hamlin is the managing
director of consultancy TeamAsia and the author of three books on
Asian economies and companies. His latest book is Marketing Asian
Places, of which he is a co-author (Wiley, 2001), and he is currently
at work on High Visibility: The Making and Marketing of Asian
Professionals into Celebrities. Write him at mahamlin@teamasia.com.).
Copyright © 2003 Michael Alan
Hamlin. All Rights Reserved.
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