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A Study
in Contrasts
By Michael Alan Hamlin
February 10, 2004
You may recall that in December,
presidential surveys suggested that there was little hope that the
incumbent, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, could win re-election,
regardless of who she ran against. Now that voters have had a little
time to think about their choices, the surveys are beginning to
show results dramatically in contrast to public perception late
last year.
Just how different was demonstrated by the results of consumer and
business confidence surveys released last week. The surveys were
conducted January 21-25 by New York-based Roper ASW Asia Pacific
for the local business paper, BusinessWorld. The consumer confidence
index rose 2.1 points to 103.6 from 101.5 in December. The results
reflect a dramatic increase in respondents who expect the economy
to improve - to 40.5 percent from just 26.3 percent.
Business, it seems, is feeling the same way. The business confidence
index was up 2.1 points to 86.1, its highest level since July last
year. However, the jump was largely attributable to positive expectations
of the future. That portion of the index increased from 85.3 points
in December to 89.3 points in January. To be sure, most businesspeople
still believe current conditions are "bad" at 50.3 percent.
But those who are becoming more optimistic are steadily increasing
in number, from 17.3 percent last August to 27 percent in the latest
survey. And it should be noted that 49.7 percent of respondents
feel economic conditions are good or neither good nor bad.
The bottom line is that despite political uncertainty and the daily
dose of depressing headlines, Filipinos are feeling better about
themselves, their incomes and businesses, and their president. As
a result, there is life in Ms. Arroyo's candidacy after all. In
fact, according to the Roper survey, Ms. Arroyo is the preferred
candidate of both business and consumers.
A Social Weather Station (SWS) survey conducted January 16-17 also
showed that Ms. Arroyo's popularity had jumped significantly, putting
her within reach of the perceived favorite, Fernando Poe Jr., a
movie star. In the previous SWS survey Arroyo trailed both Poe and
former senator Raul Roco. The Roper consumer and business surveys,
however, conducted just a few days later showed Ms. Arroyo the clear
winner.
Those results have surprised many. Obviously just as surprising
- if not most surprising - was Poe's fourth-place finish, behind
even Senator Panfilo Lacson. Among consumers, Ms. Arroyo was the
preference of 28.3 percent of respondents. Roco came in second at
24.8 percent. Lacson was the choice of 12.6 percent of respondents,
and Poe drew just 11.7 percent of respondents. Evangelist Eddie
Villanueva's charisma doesn't seem to be carrying over to his candidacy.
Just 1.2 percent of respondents view him as presidential material.
Perhaps in an unintended visual demonstration of these surprising
results, Poe and his supporters were clearly disappointed in Davao
last week, where the candidate had flown for a mass swearing in
of candidates running on his coattails. Instead of the wildly admiring,
teeming masses, Poe faced maybe a couple of thousand supporters
who were actually mostly candidates from surrounding areas, not
Davao.
While it's always possible that Poe's organizers slipped up in Davao
- which raises other questions about his candidacy - clearly new
challenges have emerged for Poe. The most alarming appears to be
that the candidate entered the contest as popular as he is ever
going to get, and the only place to go from there is down. The reality
that Poe must begin talking in a least somewhat concrete terms about
his economic and development agenda now presents particularly significant
risks. Indeed, because he can't please everyone, it's virtually
assured that anything substantial he says about anything is ultimately
going to hurt.
The Roper surveys appear to indicate that Filipinos are thinking
seriously about which candidate is in their economic best interest.
While Ms. Arroyo may not be particularly liked, therefore, compared
to her rivals she is increasingly seen as the best candidate for
consumers and businesspeople who want to be able to keep spending
and making larger sums of money. And this is a very positive thing.
Positive, because it suggests that a certain voter maturity is emerging.
People resent the fact that the elites dominate the economy, but
bringing them down by electing a populist candidate is far less
important than assuring their own prosperity.
(Michael Alan Hamlin is the managing
director of consultancy TeamAsia and the author of three books on
Asian economies and companies. His latest book is Marketing Asian
Places, of which he is a co-author (Wiley, 2001), and he is currently
at work on High Visibility: The Making and Marketing of Asian Professionals
into Celebrities. Write him at mahamlin@teamasia.com.).
Copyright © 2003 Michael Alan
Hamlin. All Rights Reserved.
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